RSC Anderlecht Futures vs. Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring: O/U 1.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 56¢ · $76 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$76.16
$23.67
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 31.3¢ | $34.74 | $53.28 | +$18.54 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 28.1¢ | $10.1 | $15.84 | +$5.74 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $3.06 | $2.72 | -$0.34 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 17.7¢ | $2.83 | $2.56 | -$0.27 | 52% 1149-1045 (2194) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $0.95 | $0.95 | +$0 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | +$0 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
Invested
$34.74
Value
$53.28
PnL
+$18.54
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$15.84
PnL
+$5.74
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$0.34
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$2.83
Value
$2.56
PnL
-$0.27
Record
52%
1149-1045 (2194)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.