Will Jong KRC Genk win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.7K
-$15.52
79¢ → 55¢
-30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 79¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$31.24 | 51% 1712-1675 (3387) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $524.9 | $1.1K | +$13.21 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 78¢ | $110.9 | $113.03 | +$2.13 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $45.76 | $45.76 | -$0 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $16.92 | $16.71 | -$0.21 | 57% 13-10 (23) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.39 | $3.99 | +$0.6 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
us391Invested
$2,468.19
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$31.24
Record
51%
1712-1675 (3387)
Invested
$524.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.21
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$110.9
Value
$113.03
PnL
+$2.13
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$45.76
Value
$45.76
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$16.71
PnL
-$0.21
Record
57%
13-10 (23)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.39
Value
$3.99
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.