Will SV Zulte Waregem win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

$56.85

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 99.6¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares17,473

Combined PnL+$176.85

Yes8 traders

Total Value$430.67

Total Shares6,300

Combined PnL-$120

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 96¢	$15.2K	$15.3K	+$184.52	93% 843-61 (904)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$8.13	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$190.48	$233.39	+$42.91	23% 56-188 (244)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 86¢	$189.87	$187.64	+$0.46	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$262.79	$105.32	-$157.47	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$229.86	$68.96	-$160.9
└ No leg	Noavg 87.3¢	$32.93	$36.36	+$3.43
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$269.81	$97.42	-$172.39	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$61.61	$70.07	+$8.46	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$10.23	$9.26	-$0.98	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.62	$8.66	+$2.04	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$8.3	$8.62	-$0.02	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$3.02	$2.96	-$0.06	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.3	+$0.05	54% 6195-5245 (11440)

Momo63

Invested

$15,161.15

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$184.52

Record

93%

843-61 (904)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,424.31

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$8.13

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR

Yes

Invested

$190.48

Value

$233.39

PnL

+$42.91

Record

23%

56-188 (244)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$189.87

Value

$187.64

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$262.79

Value

$105.32

PnL

-$157.47

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

Both legs:

Invested

$269.81

Value

$97.42

PnL

-$172.39

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.61

Value

$70.07

PnL

+$8.46

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.23

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.98

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.62

Value

$8.66

PnL

+$2.04

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.