St. Truidense VV vs. Oud-Heverlee Leuven: O/U 4.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 92¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$5.1K
$85.07
89.8¢ → 91.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graziek99 | Underavg 90¢ | $3.0K | $2.8K | -$166.67 | 87% 415-61 (476) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 93.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$14.78 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 80.5¢ | $279.78 | $339.58 | +$59.79 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 6.9¢ | $118 | $255.75 | +$137.75 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 84.4¢ | $161.92 | $168.81 | +$6.89 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84.4¢ | $111.96 | $112.71 | +$0.75 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 13.4¢ | $49.96 | $56.1 | +$6.14 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 10.5¢ | $105.27 | $151.08 | +$45.81 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 81¢ | $127 | $121.29 | +$18.42 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $10 | $15 | +$5 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $1.03 | $0.77 | -$0.26 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$3,000
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$166.67
Record
87%
415-61 (476)
Invested
$1,180.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$14.78
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
0xheavy888Invested
$279.78
Value
$339.58
PnL
+$59.79
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$118
Value
$255.75
PnL
+$137.75
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$161.92
Value
$168.81
PnL
+$6.89
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$105.27
Value
$151.08
PnL
+$45.81
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$127
Value
$121.29
PnL
+$18.42
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$10
Value
$15
PnL
+$5
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.