Will St. Truidense VV win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
2 arb excluded
$3.3K
$187.82
46.6¢ → 63¢
+35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 53.6¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$138.9 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$157.44 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.9¢ | $850.08 | $868.62 | +$18.54 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 49.3¢ | $527.73 | $679.93 | +$141.5 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $234.58 | $239.62 | +$5.03 | 55% 1779-1467 (3246) |
 poshposh | Noavg 39¢ | $117 | $159 | +$42 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 47.3¢ | $122.48 | $113.61 | -$8.87 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.3¢ | $72.83 | $81.6 | +$8.77 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 72.9¢ | $49.65 | $32.01 | -$17.65 | |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $107.69 | $96.4 | -$11.29 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 36.9¢ | $20.75 | $29.83 | +$9.08 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.5¢ | $18.8 | $20.3 | +$1.5 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$2,041.52
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$138.9
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
Both legs:
Invested
$527.73
Value
$679.93
PnL
+$141.5
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$234.58
Value
$239.62
PnL
+$5.03
Record
55%
1779-1467 (3246)
poshposhInvested
$117
Value
$159
PnL
+$42
Record
58%
10670-7658 (18328)
Invested
$122.48
Value
$113.61
PnL
-$8.87
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.69
Value
$96.4
PnL
-$11.29
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$20.75
Value
$29.83
PnL
+$9.08
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18.8
Value
$20.3
PnL
+$1.5
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.