Will Standard Liege win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$480.08

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 77¢

+67% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,369

Combined PnL+$483.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$71.46

Total Shares130

Combined PnL-$3.07

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 41.7¢	$491.6	$827.14	+$335.53	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 39.3¢	$602.83	$683.29	+$80.46	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
FO foooool	Noavg 65.8¢	$579.76	$645.1	+$65.34	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
RN1	Noavg 47.8¢	$385.78	$363.76	-$22.03	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 58.5¢	$426.16	$349.02	-$77.14	57% 1733-1295 (3028)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.6¢	$131.32	$230.58	+$99.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.5¢	$294.84	$118.44	-$176.4
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 38¢	$76	$89	+$13	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 38.4¢	$65.71	$76.1	+$10.38	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$65.49	$60.58	-$4.91	51% 862-819 (1681)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.1¢	$5.32	$6.27	+$0.95	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$3.71	$4.61	+$0.9	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.12	$1.34	+$0.23	59% 10226-7214 (17440)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.31	+$0.23	49% 8037-8396 (16433)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$491.6

Value

$827.14

PnL

+$335.53

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$602.83

Value

$683.29

PnL

+$80.46

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

foooool

Invested

$579.76

Value

$645.1

PnL

+$65.34

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

RN1

Invested

$385.78

Value

$363.76

PnL

-$22.03

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$426.16

Value

$349.02

PnL

-$77.14

Record

57%

1733-1295 (3028)

Both legs:

No$131.3243.6¢+$99.26

Yes$294.8458.5¢-$176.4

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$89

PnL

+$13

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$65.71

Value

$76.1

PnL

+$10.38

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.49

Value

$60.58

PnL

-$4.91

Record

51%

862-819 (1681)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

10226-7214 (17440)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.