Spread: RSC Anderlecht (-1.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold RSC Anderlecht (29%) · RSC Anderlecht at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
RSC Anderlecht
7
RSC Anderlecht 29%
$7.2K
-$164.09
41¢ → 99.7¢
+143% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRSC Anderlecht at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR predictionlegend | RSC Anderlechtavg 39.9¢ | $6.2K | $6.1K | -$61.61 | 31% 27-61 (88) |
GO GoalLineGhost | RSC Anderlechtavg 76.6¢ | $354.71 | $433.15 | +$78.44 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 0xheavy888CTR | KVC Westerloavg 60¢ | $240 | $242 | +$2 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | KVC Westerloavg 61¢ | $219.6 | $217.8 | -$1.8 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | KVC Westerloavg 60¢ | $120 | $121 | +$1 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | KVC Westerloavg 60¢ | $53.4 | $53.85 | +$0.45 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 HRTradingCTR | KVC Westerloavg 56.8¢ | $184.02 | $1.46 | -$182.56 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$6,189.43
Value
$6.1K
PnL
-$61.61
Record
31%
27-61 (88)
Invested
$354.71
Value
$433.15
PnL
+$78.44
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$240
Value
$242
PnL
+$2
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$219.6
Value
$217.8
PnL
-$1.8
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$120
Value
$121
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$53.4
Value
$53.85
PnL
+$0.45
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$184.02
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$182.56
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.