Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 100¢ · $36K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$36.0K
$-8.7K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR predictionlegend | Yesavg 62.1¢ | $35.9K | $35.5K | -$345.45 | 31% 27-61 (88) |
 oieshfn345CTR | Noavg 34.5¢ | $441.52 | $298.73 | -$143.82 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $79.8 | $79.8 | +$0 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 37.3¢ | $5.5K | $66.2 | $-5.4K | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 37.7¢ | $2.1K | $31.18 | $-2.1K | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
FO fooooolCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $117.57 | $31.05 | -$86.52 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
 HRTradingCTR | Noavg 38.5¢ | $564.15 | $0.73 | -$563.42 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $0.4 | $0 | -$0.4 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$35,881.6
Value
$35.5K
PnL
-$345.45
Record
31%
27-61 (88)
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$441.52
Value
$298.73
PnL
-$143.82
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$79.8
Value
$79.8
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
RN1CTRInvested
$5,480.36
Value
$66.2
PnL
$-5.4K
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$2,135.67
Value
$31.18
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$117.57
Value
$31.05
PnL
-$86.52
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$564.15
Value
$0.73
PnL
-$563.42
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.4
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.