Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cercle Brugge vs. Royal Antwerp FC: O/U 2.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 48¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 13%
$9.9K
$2.42
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Overavg 55¢ | $5.8K | $5.6K | -$208.92 | 49% 166-174 (340) |
 us391 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$119.52 | 51% 1711-1674 (3385) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 47.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$78.41 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 47.7¢ | $196.01 | $211.69 | +$15.68 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $95 | $94 | -$1 | 55% 7313-5881 (13194) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $78.3 | $81.78 | -$0.87 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 44.6¢ | $48 | $47 | -$0.5 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.35 | +$0.1 | 50% 11169-10980 (22149) |
Invested
$5,785.75
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$208.92
Record
49%
166-174 (340)
us391Invested
$2,689.25
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$119.52
Record
51%
1711-1674 (3385)
Invested
$1,004.96
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$78.41
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$196.01
Value
$211.69
PnL
+$15.68
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$95
Value
$94
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
7313-5881 (13194)
Invested
$78.3
Value
$81.78
PnL
-$0.87
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$48
Value
$47
PnL
-$0.5
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
11169-10980 (22149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.