Cercle Brugge vs. Royal Antwerp FC: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $520 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$520.04
-$138.14
79.8¢ → 99.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 80¢ | $483.46 | $344.53 | -$138.93 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 79.3¢ | $149.46 | $138.12 | -$1.18 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $31.6 | $31.2 | -$0.2 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 20.6¢ | $2.51 | $5.24 | +$2.73 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $1.51 | $0.95 | -$0.56 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
0xheavy888Invested
$483.46
Value
$344.53
PnL
-$138.93
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
VeryLucky888Invested
$149.46
Value
$138.12
PnL
-$1.18
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$31.6
Value
$31.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.51
Value
$5.24
PnL
+$2.73
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$0.56
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.