Will Royal Antwerp FC win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $685 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$684.63
$35.95
73.2¢ → 98.5¢
+35% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 70¢ | $280 | $290 | +$10 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 80.8¢ | $210.14 | $256.1 | +$45.96 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $167.03 | $119.96 | -$22.22 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $7.78 | $9.81 | +$2.03 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $6 | $4.35 | +$0.03 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $2.8 | $2.9 | +$0.1 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.42 | $1.47 | +$0.05 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
0xheavy888Invested
$280
Value
$290
PnL
+$10
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$210.14
Value
$256.1
PnL
+$45.96
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
VeryLucky888Invested
$167.03
Value
$119.96
PnL
-$22.22
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$7.78
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$2.03
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$6
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.