Will Cercle Brugge vs. Royal Antwerp FC end in a draw?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 72¢ · $231 held · ended Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$230.86

Combined PnL

$25.31

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 72¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$215.3

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$14.76

Yes1 trader

Total Value$15.55

Total Shares56

Combined PnL+$10.55

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 72¢	$186.4	$185.3	+$12	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 71¢	$27.6	$28	+$2.54	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$5	$15.55	+$10.55	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 64¢	$1.78	$2	+$0.22	50% 11176-10983 (22159)

oieshfn345

Invested

$186.4

Value

$185.3

PnL

+$12

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$28

PnL

+$2.54

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$15.55

PnL

+$10.55

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

foooool<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.