Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Cercle Brugge win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 45¢ · $120K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 17%
$120.0K
$1.0K
46.8¢ → 44.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Yesavg 46.7¢ | $64.1K | $63.1K | $-1.0K | 49% 166-174 (340) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 53.2¢ | $43.6K | $45.5K | +$1.9K | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
 RN1 | Noavg 52.9¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$115.42 | 54% 57141-49402 (106543) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 53.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$34.9 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 53.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$17.26 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 54¢ | $483.3 | $478.83 | -$4.47 | 50% 33838-33423 (67261) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $428 | $432 | +$4 | 55% 7313-5881 (13194) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 53.7¢ | $344.19 | $346.19 | +$2 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
FO foooool | Noavg 52.1¢ | $180.83 | $189.18 | +$8.34 | 50% 11169-10980 (22149) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 54.2¢ | $187.61 | $186.84 | -$0.77 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | -$0 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
Invested
$64,077.28
Value
$63.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
49%
166-174 (340)
Invested
$43,639.37
Value
$45.5K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
RN1Invested
$5,773.92
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$115.42
Record
54%
57141-49402 (106543)
Invested
$2,819.58
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$34.9
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
HRTradingInvested
$1,009.29
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17.26
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$483.3
Value
$478.83
PnL
-$4.47
Record
50%
33838-33423 (67261)
0xheavy888Invested
$428
Value
$432
PnL
+$4
Record
55%
7313-5881 (13194)
VeryLucky888Invested
$344.19
Value
$346.19
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$180.83
Value
$189.18
PnL
+$8.34
Record
50%
11169-10980 (22149)
Invested
$187.61
Value
$186.84
PnL
-$0.77
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.