Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 69¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$525.55

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 68.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,511

Combined PnL-$205.29

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,973

Combined PnL+$730.84

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 88¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$25.59	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 75¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$239.03	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
RN1CTR	Noavg 16.3¢	$618.61	$1.3K	+$692.61	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 27.3¢	$284.9	$317.19	+$32.28	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
└ No leg	Noavg 27.3¢	$178.38	$215.64	+$37.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.3¢	$106.53	$101.55	-$4.98
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 31.7¢	$193.2	$210	-$4.03	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Noavg 32¢	$108.06	$116.77	-$2.29	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
└ No leg	Noavg 32¢	$64	$76	+$1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$44.06	$40.77	-$3.29
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$138.45	$116.7	-$21.75	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80¢	$100	$83.13	-$16.88
└ No leg	Noavg 38.4¢	$38.45	$33.58	-$4.87
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 31¢	$88.29	$109.65	+$21.36	50% 2519-2501 (5020)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 65.2¢	$62.24	$65.42	+$3.18	54% 6304-5335 (11639)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$39.88	$61.11	+$21.24	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$35.95	$40.92	+$4.97	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$22.4	$20.65	-$1.75	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$11.35	$12.77	+$1.42	59% 10257-7240 (17497)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,252

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$25.59

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$2,485.16

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$239.03

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

RN1CTR

Invested

$618.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$692.61

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$284.9

Value

$317.19

PnL

+$32.28

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Both legs:

No$178.3827.3¢+$37.26

Yes$106.5370.3¢-$4.98

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$193.2

Value

$210

PnL

-$4.03

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$108.06

Value

$116.77

PnL

-$2.29

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Both legs:

Invested

$138.45

Value

$116.7

PnL

-$21.75

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Both legs:

Yes$10080¢-$16.88

No$38.4538.4¢-$4.87

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$88.29

Value

$109.65

PnL

+$21.36

Record

50%

2519-2501 (5020)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.24

Value

$65.42

PnL

+$3.18

Record

54%

6304-5335 (11639)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$61.11

PnL

+$21.24

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.95

Value

$40.92

PnL

+$4.97

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$1.75

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$11.35

Value

$12.77

PnL

+$1.42

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.