Will SK Beveren win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$1.3K
$1.5
90.7¢ → 93.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 90.2¢ | $817.91 | $836.49 | +$18.58 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 95.8¢ | $192.16 | $185.39 | -$6.76 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 89.5¢ | $112.51 | $121.31 | +$8.8 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $75.67 | $83.63 | +$7.97 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.72 | $27.61 | +$0.28 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $50.38 | $22.69 | -$27.69 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $9.25 | $9.65 | +$0.4 | 54% 6304-5335 (11639) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $5.22 | $5.01 | -$0.21 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.3 | $1.34 | +$0.3 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $1.13 | $1.13 | +$0 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $0.52 | $0.36 | -$0.16 | 59% 30499-21212 (51711) |
Invested
$817.91
Value
$836.49
PnL
+$18.58
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$192.16
Value
$185.39
PnL
-$6.76
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$112.51
Value
$121.31
PnL
+$8.8
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$75.67
Value
$83.63
PnL
+$7.97
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$25.72
Value
$27.61
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$50.38
Value
$22.69
PnL
-$27.69
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$0.4
Record
54%
6304-5335 (11639)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.22
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$0.16
Record
59%
30499-21212 (51711)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.