Will SK Beveren win on 2026-09-06?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $56 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$55.77
-$17.08
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $47.4 | $22 | -$25.4 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $9.78 | $20.02 | +$10.24 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $8.95 | $8.62 | -$0.33 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $2.2 | -$1.5 | 66% 23982-12171 (36153) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $8.28 | $1.66 | -$0.09 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $1.27 | $1.27 | -$0 | 51% 3519-3428 (6947) |
Invested
$47.4
Value
$22
PnL
-$25.4
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
RN1<$100Invested
$9.78
Value
$20.02
PnL
+$10.24
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$8.95
Value
$8.62
PnL
-$0.33
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$1.5
Record
66%
23982-12171 (36153)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.28
Value
$1.66
PnL
-$0.09
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3519-3428 (6947)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.