Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.8K
$918.34
44.7¢ → 56.5¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 46.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$275.27 | 61% 20932-13324 (34256) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccd | Noavg 46.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$229.19 | — 1-0 (1) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 35.6¢ | $374.55 | $569.95 | +$210.69 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $152 | $348 | +$196 | 18% 525-2348 (2873) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $53.7 | $60.2 | +$7.2 | 70% 399-175 (574) |
balthazarInvested
$1,292.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$275.27
Record
61%
20932-13324 (34256)
Invested
$1,055.83
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$229.19
Record
—
1-0 (1)
XieGuangKunInvested
$374.55
Value
$569.95
PnL
+$210.69
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$152
Value
$348
PnL
+$196
Record
18%
525-2348 (2873)
Invested
$53.7
Value
$60.2
PnL
+$7.2
Record
70%
399-175 (574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.