Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.94
-$84
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $4.32 | $0.73 | -$3.59 | 32% 4382-9430 (13812) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $26.84 | $0.07 | -$26.77 | 0% 0-29 (29) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $15.08 | $0.04 | -$15.04 | 32% 328-692 (1020) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $13.56 | $0.03 | -$13.53 | 42% 143-199 (342) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $12.56 | $0.03 | -$12.53 | 29% 173-433 (606) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $12.56 | $0.03 | -$12.53 | 28% 196-493 (689) |
Invested
$4.32
Value
$0.73
PnL
-$3.59
Record
32%
4382-9430 (13812)
Invested
$26.84
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$26.77
Record
0%
0-29 (29)
Invested
$15.08
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$15.04
Record
32%
328-692 (1020)
Invested
$13.56
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$13.53
Record
42%
143-199 (342)
Invested
$12.56
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$12.53
Record
29%
173-433 (606)
Invested
$12.56
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$12.53
Record
28%
196-493 (689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.