Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $574 held · ends Dec 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$573.62
-$0.29
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Late
185h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.9¢ | $184.82 | $184.72 | -$0.09 | 15% 65-373 (438) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $131.67 | $131.6 | -$0.07 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $105.89 | $105.84 | -$0.05 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.93 | -$0.02 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.65 | $31.63 | -$0.02 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 26% 858-2483 (3341) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | — 2-14 (16) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | -$0 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
Invested
$184.82
Value
$184.72
PnL
-$0.09
Record
15%
65-373 (438)
LucerysInvested
$131.67
Value
$131.6
PnL
-$0.07
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$105.89
Value
$105.84
PnL
-$0.05
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$31.65
Value
$31.63
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
858-2483 (3341)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.