Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $511 held · ends Dec 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$510.86
-$1.09
99.8¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $131.67 | $131.27 | -$0.4 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $105.66 | $105.58 | -$0.09 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $88.99 | $88.84 | -$0.15 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.7 | -$0.22 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.8 | -$0.15 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $30.69 | $30.6 | -$0.09 | 41% 689-993 (1682) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.88 | -$0.09 | — 2-14 (16) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.09 | $0.19 | +$0.09 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
LucerysInvested
$131.67
Value
$131.27
PnL
-$0.4
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$105.66
Value
$105.58
PnL
-$0.09
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$88.99
Value
$88.84
PnL
-$0.15
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.7
PnL
-$0.22
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.8
PnL
-$0.15
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$30.69
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$0.09
Record
41%
689-993 (1682)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.88
PnL
-$0.09
Record
—
2-14 (16)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.19
PnL
+$0.09
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.