Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $730 held · ends Dec 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$730.32
-$0.73
99.6¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
175h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.6¢ | $198.9 | $198.7 | -$0.2 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $188.92 | $188.73 | -$0.19 | 44% 1088-1381 (2469) |
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $104.58 | $104.48 | -$0.11 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $80.67 | $80.59 | -$0.08 | 48% 90-97 (187) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $50.3 | $50.25 | -$0.05 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $50.3 | $50.25 | -$0.05 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $37.47 | $37.43 | -$0.04 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.9 | -$0.02 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
LucerysInvested
$198.9
Value
$198.7
PnL
-$0.2
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
Invested
$188.92
Value
$188.73
PnL
-$0.19
Record
44%
1088-1381 (2469)
Invested
$104.58
Value
$104.48
PnL
-$0.11
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$80.67
Value
$80.59
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
90-97 (187)
Invested
$50.3
Value
$50.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$50.3
Value
$50.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
balthazar<$100Invested
$37.47
Value
$37.43
PnL
-$0.04
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.