Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 90¢ · $567 held · ends Dec 18

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Fri, Dec 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

Total Value

$567.35

Combined PnL

$15.96

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 89.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$457.87

Total Shares498

Combined PnL+$21.34

No7 traders

Total Value$109.48

Total Shares967

Combined PnL-$5.38

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

608h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 91¢	$263.89	$258.09	-$7.25	90% 5014-573 (5587)
2B9S	Yesavg 59.5¢	$113.81	$109.9	-$3.91	17% 4484-21727 (26211)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$62.4	$44.09	-$18.31	45% 2924-3585 (6509)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Noavg 21.4¢	$53.67	$28.8	-$26.13	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 65.3¢	$62.34	$28.8	+$16.76	26% 7286-21048 (28334)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$15.72	$27.44	+$11.72	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$23.01	$26.11	+$3.1	43% 2287-2977 (5264)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$56.62	$15.09	+$75.6	49% 9352-9925 (19277)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$31.53	$13.93	-$7.57	52% 30722-28786 (59508)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$6.6	$7.53	+$0.93	77% 12627-3871 (16498)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 32.6¢	$19.26	$3.7	-$11.3	29% 2495-6009 (8504)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 21.6¢	$32.28	$1.66	-$17.66	53% 8525-7603 (16128)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$263.89

Value

$258.09

PnL

-$7.25

Record

90%

5014-573 (5587)

2B9S

Yes

Invested

$113.81

Value

$109.9

PnL

-$3.91

Record

17%

4484-21727 (26211)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$62.4

Value

$44.09

PnL

-$18.31

Record

45%

2924-3585 (6509)

auros2CTR<$100

Invested

$53.67

Value

$28.8

PnL

-$26.13

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.34

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$16.76

Record

26%

7286-21048 (28334)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.72

Value

$27.44

PnL

+$11.72

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.01

Value

$26.11

PnL

+$3.1

Record

43%

2287-2977 (5264)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$56.62

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$75.6

Record

49%

9352-9925 (19277)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$31.53

Value

$13.93

PnL

-$7.57

Record

52%

30722-28786 (59508)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.53

PnL

+$0.93

Record

77%

12627-3871 (16498)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$19.26

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$11.3

Record

29%

2495-6009 (8504)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$32.28

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$17.66

Record

53%

8525-7603 (16128)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

608h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.