Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $719 held · ends Dec 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$718.81
-$0.36
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $232.97 | $232.85 | -$0.12 | 44% 1088-1381 (2469) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $199.5 | $199.4 | -$0.1 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.9¢ | $104.9 | $104.84 | -$0.05 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $80.91 | $80.87 | -$0.04 | 48% 90-97 (187) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $50.45 | $50.42 | -$0.03 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $50.45 | $50.42 | -$0.03 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
Invested
$232.97
Value
$232.85
PnL
-$0.12
Record
44%
1088-1381 (2469)
LucerysInvested
$199.5
Value
$199.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
Invested
$104.9
Value
$104.84
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$80.91
Value
$80.87
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
90-97 (187)
Invested
$50.45
Value
$50.42
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$50.45
Value
$50.42
PnL
-$0.03
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.