Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $342 held · ends Dec 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Dec 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$342.27

Combined PnL

$43.83

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 99.4¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$338.67

Total Shares341

Combined PnL+$128.29

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.59

Total Shares599

Combined PnL-$84.46

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.6¢	$165.25	$145.03	-$0.33	52% 30789-28932 (59721)
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.7¢	$182.4	$92.44	-$0.25	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$57.94	$57.65	+$128.86	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.6¢	$111.04	$39.76	-$0.15	43% 8733-11387 (20120)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$3.61	$3.78	+$0.17	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$1.31	$1.31	-$42.41	26% 561-1622 (2183)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.49	$1.29	-$41.71	20% 340-1332 (1672)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.6	$0.65	+$0.06	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$26.74	$0.34	-$0.4	26% 7287-21050 (28337)

balthazar

Invested

$165.25

Value

$145.03

PnL

-$0.33

Record

52%

30789-28932 (59721)

god83743894

Invested

$182.4

Value

$92.44

PnL

-$0.25

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$57.94

Value

$57.65

PnL

+$128.86

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

mildwindow27

Invested

$111.04

Value

$39.76

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

8733-11387 (20120)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$42.41

Record

26%

561-1622 (2183)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$41.71

Record

20%

340-1332 (1672)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.06

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.74

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.4

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.