Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $499 held · ends Dec 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Dec 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$499.27

Combined PnL

-$28.29

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 99.4¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$496.02

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$55.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.25

Total Shares542

Combined PnL-$84.06

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.7¢	$182.4	$182.45	+$0.05	46% 10395-12108 (22503)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.6¢	$111.04	$81.16	+$0.01	47% 8498-9698 (18196)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$78.57	$78.49	-$0.08	53% 29752-26614 (56366)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$57.94	$57.83	+$54.73	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 95¢	$43.21	$43.91	+$0.7	48% 1337-1437 (2774)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.6¢	$108.43	$26.26	-$0.19	27% 7002-19130 (26132)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$25.36	$25.92	+$0.56	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$218.58	$1.31	-$42.41	27% 549-1481 (2030)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.49	$1.29	-$41.71	21% 338-1241 (1579)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.6	$0.65	+$0.06	18% 4430-20777 (25207)

god83743894

Invested

$182.4

Value

$182.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

10395-12108 (22503)

mildwindow27

Invested

$111.04

Value

$81.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

8498-9698 (18196)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$78.57

Value

$78.49

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

29752-26614 (56366)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$57.94

Value

$57.83

PnL

+$54.73

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$43.21

Value

$43.91

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

1337-1437 (2774)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$108.43

Value

$26.26

PnL

-$0.19

Record

27%

7002-19130 (26132)

korda77<$100

Invested

$25.36

Value

$25.92

PnL

+$0.56

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$218.58

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$42.41

Record

27%

549-1481 (2030)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$41.71

Record

21%

338-1241 (1579)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.06

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.