Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.83

Combined PnL

-$324.51

Smart Money Entry

10.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.41

Total Shares2,814

Combined PnL-$324.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.24	$0.34	-$1.9	52% 31052-29024 (60076)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$321.68	$0.27	-$133.15	45% 3009-3702 (6711)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$52.8	$0.26	-$52.54	31% 3287-7149 (10436)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$63.36	$0.16	-$63.2	37% 4059-6782 (10841)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$13.44	$0.11	-$3.31	71% 13962-5629 (19591)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$2.2	$0.08	-$2.11	42% 919-1260 (2179)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$25.79	$0.05	-$25.74	30% 475-1117 (1592)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$26.05	$0.05	-$26	31% 510-1143 (1653)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.21	$0.05	-$0.16	27% 2545-6952 (9497)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$7.72	$0.02	-$7.7	31% 519-1170 (1689)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$7.72	$0.02	-$7.7	30% 502-1181 (1683)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.32	$0	-$0.99	17% 396-1983 (2379)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.24

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$1.9

Record

52%

31052-29024 (60076)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$321.68

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$133.15

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.8

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$52.54

Record

31%

3287-7149 (10436)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.36

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$63.2

Record

37%

4059-6782 (10841)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.44

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$3.31

Record

71%

13962-5629 (19591)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.11

Record

42%

919-1260 (2179)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.79

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$25.74

Record

30%

475-1117 (1592)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$26

Record

31%

510-1143 (1653)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.16

Record

27%

2545-6952 (9497)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.7

Record

31%

519-1170 (1689)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.7

Record

30%

502-1181 (1683)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

PnL

-$0.99

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.