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5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $313 held · ends Dec 17

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$313.23

Combined PnL

$180.06

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 99¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$311.03

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$182.85

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.57

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$2.78

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 87.7¢	$122.78	$139.58	+$16.39	49% 1882-1986 (3868)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$49.6	$74.77	+$45.01	47% 3792-4260 (8052)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$63.67	$63.99	+$0.32	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$8.95	$22.72	+$121.17	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.4¢	$134.27	$9.97	-$0.05	43% 8732-11387 (20119)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.46	$1.36	+$0.9	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.13	$0.09	-$0.04	27% 2504-6860 (9364)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$3.47	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.23	$0.04	-$0.18	26% 554-1607 (2161)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$122.78

Value

$139.58

PnL

+$16.39

Record

49%

1882-1986 (3868)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$74.77

PnL

+$45.01

Record

47%

3792-4260 (8052)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$63.67

Value

$63.99

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$22.72

PnL

+$121.17

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

mildwindow27

Invested

$134.27

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

8732-11387 (20119)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.9

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.04

Record

27%

2504-6860 (9364)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.47

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.18

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.