Will Sabail FK win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $727 held · ended Oct 27

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$726.8

Combined PnL

$158.1

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 88¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$726.43

Total Shares825

Combined PnL+$158.49

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares3

Combined PnL-$0.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 65.8¢	$489.93	$655.18	+$165.24	50% 11938-12086 (24024)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 97¢	$73.2	$66.41	-$6.79	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$4.8	$4.84	+$0.04	54% 2558-2193 (4751)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$0.82	$0.38	-$0.39	49% 3887-4076 (7963)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$489.93

Value

$655.18

PnL

+$165.24

Record

50%

11938-12086 (24024)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$73.2

Value

$66.41

PnL

-$6.79

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

2558-2193 (4751)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.39

Record

49%

3887-4076 (7963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.