Will Shahdag Qusar FK win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $469 held · ended Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$469.18

Combined PnL

$164.19

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 99.3¢

+88% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$468.34

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$213.96

No2 traders

Total Value$0.84

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$49.77

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 48.7¢	$205.91	$418.61	+$212.7	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 88.2¢	$33.27	$37.34	+$4.07	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 88.9¢	$15.2	$12.38	-$2.82	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$46.97	$0.77	-$46.2	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$3.64	$0.07	-$3.57	50% 12108-12315 (24423)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$205.91

Value

$418.61

PnL

+$212.7

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.27

Value

$37.34

PnL

+$4.07

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.2

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$2.82

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$46.2

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.57

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.