FK Kapaz vs. Baku Sporting: O/U 4.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 60¢ · $669 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$669.38
$24.83
56.4¢ → 60¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 57.5¢ | $375.22 | $395.09 | +$19.87 | 49% 18600-19021 (37621) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 47.1¢ | $103.44 | $102.08 | -$1.36 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $60.79 | $90.3 | +$29.51 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 53.8¢ | $46.79 | $46.12 | -$0.67 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $53.71 | $28.94 | -$24.76 | 50% 2460-2452 (4912) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.57 | $6.81 | +$2.24 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
Invested
$375.22
Value
$395.09
PnL
+$19.87
Record
49%
18600-19021 (37621)
Invested
$103.44
Value
$102.08
PnL
-$1.36
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$60.79
Value
$90.3
PnL
+$29.51
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
Invested
$46.79
Value
$46.12
PnL
-$0.67
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$53.71
Value
$28.94
PnL
-$24.76
Record
50%
2460-2452 (4912)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$6.81
PnL
+$2.24
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.