Spread: FK Kapaz (-3.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Baku Sporting (50%) · Baku Sporting at 90¢ · $627 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Baku Sporting
4
Baku Sporting 50%
1 arb excluded
$627.45
$13.88
53.7¢ → 90¢
+68% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBaku Sporting at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Baku Sportingavg 53.6¢ | $333.02 | $354.32 | +$21.3 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100 | Baku Sportingavg 29.4¢ | $112.34 | $190.47 | +$78.13 | 59% 30089-20811 (50900) |
| └ Baku Sporting leg | Baku Sportingavg 29.4¢ | $60.53 | $141.01 | +$80.49 | |
| └ FK Kapaz leg | FK Kapazavg 33¢ | $51.81 | $49.46 | -$2.36 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | FK Kapazavg 48.6¢ | $80.15 | $72.72 | -$7.43 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Baku Sportingavg 54.7¢ | $7.82 | $7.73 | -$0.1 | 55% 1688-1389 (3077) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | FK Kapazavg 44¢ | $2.12 | $2.21 | +$0.1 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
Invested
$333.02
Value
$354.32
PnL
+$21.3
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$112.34
Value
$190.47
PnL
+$78.13
Record
59%
30089-20811 (50900)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.15
Value
$72.72
PnL
-$7.43
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
Invested
$7.82
Value
$7.73
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
1688-1389 (3077)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.