Gabala FK vs. Energetik Mingechevir: O/U 5.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$718.68

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 50.5¢

-31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,505

Combined PnL-$786.81

Over2 traders

Total Value$806.58

Total Shares1,391

Combined PnL+$68.13

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 56.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$1.91	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$53.36
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$55.28
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 49.1¢	$517.41	$709.66	+$192.25	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.6¢	$242.2	$474.03	+$231.83
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.1¢	$275.21	$235.64	-$39.57
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 92.8¢	$1.3K	$586.73	-$709.02	72% 2220-850 (3070)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 57.9¢	$543.51	$544.8	+$1.3	50% 11938-12086 (24024)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 49¢	$543.3	$465.51	-$77.79	49% 18391-18816 (37207)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 43.2¢	$194.95	$261.78	+$66.83	59% 29921-20647 (50568)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,130.69

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$1.91

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

Both legs:

Over$2,666.6856.9¢+$53.36

Under$2,46443¢-$55.28

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$517.41

Value

$709.66

PnL

+$192.25

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

Both legs:

Over$242.229.6¢+$231.83

Under$275.2149.1¢-$39.57

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$1,295.75

Value

$586.73

PnL

-$709.02

Record

72%

2220-850 (3070)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$543.51

Value

$544.8

PnL

+$1.3

Record

50%

11938-12086 (24024)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$543.3

Value

$465.51

PnL

-$77.79

Record

49%

18391-18816 (37207)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$194.95

Value

$261.78

PnL

+$66.83

Record

59%

29921-20647 (50568)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.