Will Gabala FK win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$143.99

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 99.3¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL-$670.35

No4 traders

Total Value$586.14

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL+$526.36

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 97.4¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$629.86	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 95¢	$439.98	$399.49	-$40.49	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 2.1¢	$24.88	$293	+$268.12	59% 44243-30611 (74854)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 3¢	$30	$253.75	+$223.75	52% 5811-5434 (11245)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Noavg 3.3¢	$3.26	$24.38	+$21.13	53% 689-618 (1307)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 2.7¢	$1.64	$15	+$13.36	59% 29920-20643 (50563)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,116.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$629.86

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$439.98

Value

$399.49

PnL

-$40.49

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$24.88

Value

$293

PnL

+$268.12

Record

59%

44243-30611 (74854)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$30

Value

$253.75

PnL

+$223.75

Record

52%

5811-5434 (11245)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$21.13

Record

53%

689-618 (1307)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$15

PnL

+$13.36

Record

59%

29920-20643 (50563)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.