Will Sabah Masazir win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$74.26

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 93.5¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,649

Combined PnL-$65.85

Yes5 traders

Total Value$731.15

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL-$8.41

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Noavg 54.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$21.63	45% 304-376 (680)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 47.4¢	$370.7	$359.45	-$11.26	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 49.6¢	$307.73	$323.1	-$129.98	58% 28414-20974 (49388)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$270	$275.61	+$5.61	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
us391	Noavg 52¢	$186.51	$193.92	+$7.41	51% 1671-1621 (3292)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$78.75	$80.38	+$1.64	50% 2499-2487 (4986)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 48¢	$464.19	$52.51	+$75.49	51% 3921-3836 (7757)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$10.15	$10.24	+$0.1	51% 5974-5666 (11640)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$5.58	$8.45	+$2.86	52% 3998-3640 (7638)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$9.97	$5.48	-$4.49	54% 6194-5243 (11437)

metski29

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$21.63

Record

45%

304-376 (680)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$370.7

Value

$359.45

PnL

-$11.26

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$307.73

Value

$323.1

PnL

-$129.98

Record

58%

28414-20974 (49388)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Yes

Invested

$270

Value

$275.61

PnL

+$5.61

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

us391

Invested

$186.51

Value

$193.92

PnL

+$7.41

Record

51%

1671-1621 (3292)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.75

Value

$80.38

PnL

+$1.64

Record

50%

2499-2487 (4986)

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$464.19

Value

$52.51

PnL

+$75.49

Record

51%

3921-3836 (7757)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

5974-5666 (11640)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$2.86

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$4.49

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.