Will Wolfsberger AC win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
$1.3K
51.6¢ → 100¢
+94% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 52.2¢ | $4.0K | $4.6K | +$642.32 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $1.6K | $2.2K | +$534.6 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 26.5¢ | $753.12 | $928.37 | +$151.03 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26.5¢ | $504.66 | $543.38 | +$38.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $248.46 | $384.99 | +$112.31 | |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 25.4¢ | $45.75 | $136.31 | +$90.56 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20 | $12.91 | -$7.09 | 63% 1200-693 (1893) |
Invested
$3,994.34
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$642.32
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,648.55
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$534.6
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$753.12
Value
$928.37
PnL
+$151.03
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.75
Value
$136.31
PnL
+$90.56
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$20
Value
$12.91
PnL
-$7.09
Record
63%
1200-693 (1893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.