Will SK Sturm Graz win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.3K
$496.71
45.9¢ → 76¢
+66% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44.7¢ | $714.8 | $1.2K | +$500.58 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $24.55 | $46.64 | +$0.31 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $26.1 | $24.05 | -$2.05 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $21.2 | $19.08 | -$2.12 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$714.8
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$500.58
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$24.55
Value
$46.64
PnL
+$0.31
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$24.05
PnL
-$2.05
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$21.2
Value
$19.08
PnL
-$2.12
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.