FC Salzburg vs. Austria Lustenau: O/U 7.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 88¢ · $904 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$904.25
$23.54
95.4¢ → 87.8¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.4¢ | $821.77 | $856.93 | +$35.16 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 95¢ | $38 | $35.12 | -$0.42 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 12.2¢ | $12.2 | $12.2 | -$11.2 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.