Will FC Salzburg win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$10.0K
$-1.2K
96.2¢ → 99.3¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | +$2.53 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$176.82 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 83¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$217.93 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 12.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | $-1.2K | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 83¢ | $221.61 | $237.63 | +$16.02 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $14 | $22 | +$8 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.7¢ | $1.1 | $0.87 | -$0.23 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
Invested
$5,560.44
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$2.53
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
Invested
$1,675.58
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$176.82
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
RN1Invested
$1,125.38
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$217.93
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$1,467.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$221.61
Value
$237.63
PnL
+$16.02
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$14
Value
$22
PnL
+$8
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.