Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Salzburg vs. Austria Lustenau: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 39¢ · $66 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$65.85
-$4.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $51.44 | $48.36 | -$3.08 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $17.53 | $15.9 | -$1.63 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.04 | $1.59 | +$0.55 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.