Will Austria Lustenau win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $839 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$838.77
$22.99
94.7¢ → 98¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 95¢ | $669.94 | $691.1 | +$21.16 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 93¢ | $139.77 | $147.28 | +$2.25 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.75 | $0.3 | -$0.45 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.08 | $0.1 | +$0.03 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
Invested
$669.94
Value
$691.1
PnL
+$21.16
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$139.77
Value
$147.28
PnL
+$2.25
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$0.45
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.