Grazer AK 1902 vs. TSV Hartberg: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$251.71

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,898

Combined PnL+$159.97

Under5 traders

Total Value$609.32

Total Shares2,046

Combined PnL+$91.74

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 89.5¢	$922.49	$1.0K	+$84.04	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 20.1¢	$320.99	$480.26	+$159.27	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 53¢	$360.07	$475.56	+$115.49	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 89.8¢	$175.2	$136.61	-$38.59	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$146	$85.54	-$48.4	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$53.49	$34.88	-$18.6	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$8	$8.61	+$0.6	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 79.5¢	$8.15	$7.18	-$0.98	50% 3393-3333 (6726)
ZX zxc368<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$5.77	$5.78	+$0	98% 12941-204 (13145)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$1.15	$0.02	-$1.13	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$922.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$84.04

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$320.99

Value

$480.26

PnL

+$159.27

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$360.07

Value

$475.56

PnL

+$115.49

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$175.2

Value

$136.61

PnL

-$38.59

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$146

Value

$85.54

PnL

-$48.4

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.49

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$18.6

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.61

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$8.15

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

3393-3333 (6726)

zxc368<$100

Over

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

12941-204 (13145)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.13

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.