Will TSV Hartberg win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $869 held · ended Oct 30

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$868.82

Combined PnL

$64.27

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$831.42

Total Shares852

Combined PnL+$91.37

No3 traders

Total Value$37.4

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$27.1

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 87.1¢	$708.34	$805.24	+$96.9	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$56.7	$32.85	-$23.85	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$26.86	$19.74	-$7.12	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.85	$3.18	+$1.32	54% 6195-5245 (11440)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$4.7	$2.72	-$1.98	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$1.83	$2	+$0.18	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$1.83	-$1.28	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$1.18	$1.27	+$0.09	59% 30379-21090 (51469)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$708.34

Value

$805.24

PnL

+$96.9

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$56.7

Value

$32.85

PnL

-$23.85

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.86

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$7.12

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$1.32

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$1.98

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$1.28

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.09

Record

59%

30379-21090 (51469)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.