FK Austria Wien vs. SK Rapid: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 63¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
3 arb excluded
$7.4K
$505.06
45.8¢ → 62.5¢
+37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 51.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$211.24 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$307.7 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $652.96 | $556.5 | -$96.46 | |
 us391 | Underavg 46¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$489.44 | 51% 1712-1675 (3387) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$177.99 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.8¢ | $645.34 | $868.49 | +$195.58 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.7¢ | $1.2K | $826.77 | -$373.58 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 45.9¢ | $980.58 | $997.98 | +$17.4 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.2¢ | $487.49 | $594.99 | +$107.5 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.9¢ | $493.08 | $402.99 | -$90.1 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 44.7¢ | $349.41 | $483.32 | +$13.12 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $53 | $54 | +$1 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $11 | $12.5 | +$1.5 | 51% 1529-1481 (3010) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,096
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$211.24
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Both legs:
us391Invested
$1,667.53
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$489.44
Record
51%
1712-1675 (3387)
Invested
$1,845.68
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$177.99
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Both legs:
Invested
$980.58
Value
$997.98
PnL
+$17.4
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$349.41
Value
$483.32
PnL
+$13.12
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$53
Value
$54
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$11
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
51%
1529-1481 (3010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.