Will SK Rapid win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$24.41

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 77.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$970.21

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$23.55

No1 trader

Total Value$18.45

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$0.86

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 72¢	$796.66	$804.58	+$7.92	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$212.33	$131.87	-$80.46	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.9¢	$186.23	$104.33	-$81.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72.5¢	$26.1	$27.54	+$1.44
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 58¢	$123.04	$85.43	-$1.86	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$34.58	$53.74	+$19.16	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 39.7¢	$25.34	$23.59	-$1.75	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$17.59	$18.45	+$0.86	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$2.79	$2.87	+$0.08	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$796.66

Value

$804.58

PnL

+$7.92

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$212.33

Value

$131.87

PnL

-$80.46

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Both legs:

Invested

$123.04

Value

$85.43

PnL

-$1.86

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.58

Value

$53.74

PnL

+$19.16

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.34

Value

$23.59

PnL

-$1.75

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$17.59

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$0.86

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.