Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $188 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$188.29
-$21.09
81.4¢ → 81¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $71.74 | $71.74 | +$0.14 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $69.2 | $62.49 | -$6.71 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $65.07 | $50.74 | -$14.33 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.32 | -$0.18 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
RN1<$100Invested
$71.74
Value
$71.74
PnL
+$0.14
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$69.2
Value
$62.49
PnL
-$6.71
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
Invested
$65.07
Value
$50.74
PnL
-$14.33
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.32
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.