Will WSG Tirol win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 98¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
1 arb excluded
$8.6K
-$50.61
98¢ → 98.1¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $8.3K | $8.3K | -$12.75 | 93% 859-61 (920) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $146.92 | $147.41 | +$0.49 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.9¢ | $108.64 | $108.86 | +$0.22 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $38.28 | $38.55 | +$0.27 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $54.4 | $53.41 | -$0.99 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $23.51 | $23.5 | -$0.01 | 53% 731-642 (1373) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $15.11 | $11.33 | -$3.78 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $7.7 | $7.7 | +$0 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $38.45 | $6.22 | -$32.24 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $3.77 | $4.7 | +$0.93 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $3.32 | $1.94 | -$1.38 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.05 | $0.65 | -$0.4 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$8,338.5
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$12.75
Record
93%
859-61 (920)
Invested
$146.92
Value
$147.41
PnL
+$0.49
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.4
Value
$53.41
PnL
-$0.99
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$23.51
Value
$23.5
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
731-642 (1373)
Invested
$15.11
Value
$11.33
PnL
-$3.78
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$38.45
Value
$6.22
PnL
-$32.24
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.93
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$3.32
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.