Spread: LASK Linz (-1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold WSG Tirol (33%) · WSG Tirol at 60¢ · $31K held · ended Oct 31

LASK Linz40¢WSG Tirol60¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

WSG Tirol

Consensus Traders

WSG Tirol 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.0K

Combined PnL

-$472.78

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 60¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWSG Tirol at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

WSG Tirol

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

LASK Linz40%

WSG Tirol60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

WSG Tirol2 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares33,719

Combined PnL+$3.7K

LASK Linz4 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares33,008

Combined PnL$-4.2K

WSG Tirol — 33%LASK Linz — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on WSG Tirol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLASK Linz 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrLASK Linz 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000LASK Linz 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	WSG Tirolavg 52¢	$11.2K	$14.0K	+$2.7K	48% 149-164 (313)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	LASK Linzavg 48¢	$11.6K	$10.0K	$-4.3K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	LASK Linzavg 48.3¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$148.28	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
GO GoalLineGhost	WSG Tirolavg 51.2¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$967.22	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	LASK Linzavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$20	53% 5640-4979 (10619)
HRTradingARB<$100	WSG Tirolavg 52.8¢	$72.02	$72.6	+$0.58	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
└ WSG Tirol leg	WSG Tirolavg 52.8¢	$43.57	$45.79	+$2.22
└ LASK Linz leg	LASK Linzavg 47.2¢	$28.45	$26.81	-$1.64
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 49¢	$29.4	$30.6	+$1.2	58% 28788-21225 (50013)

1l2ihj34li12u34

WSG Tirol

Invested

$11,249.92

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

48%

149-164 (313)

UpTheBluesCTR

LASK Linz

Invested

$11,599.8

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

LASK Linz

Invested

$3,276.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$148.28

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

GoalLineGhost

WSG Tirol

Invested

$1,396.06

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$967.22

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

LASK Linz

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5640-4979 (10619)

HRTradingARB<$100

WSG Tirol

Invested

$72.02

Value

$72.6

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Both legs:

WSG Tirol$43.5752.8¢+$2.22

LASK Linz$28.4547.2¢-$1.64

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Research grade

NeutralWSG Tirol at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

WSG Tirol

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on WSG Tirol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLASK Linz 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrLASK Linz 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000LASK Linz 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that WSG Tirol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.