Will LASK Linz win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 85¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes85¢No15¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$100.22

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 85¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,105

Combined PnL+$150.28

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,876

Combined PnL-$250.5

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 72.8¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$345	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 35.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$307.92	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 27¢	$1.3K	$701.51	-$562.79	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 71.5¢	$571.98	$415.98	-$155.99	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 80.6¢	$149.25	$104.34	-$44.91	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$47.61	$59	+$11.38	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$53.28	$38.48	-$14.8	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$15.9	$25.5	+$9.6	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 28.1¢	$8.2	$13.4	+$5.2	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$2.25	$1.41	-$0.84	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$2,169.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$345

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,221

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$307.92

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,264.3

Value

$701.51

PnL

-$562.79

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$571.98

Value

$415.98

PnL

-$155.99

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$149.25

Value

$104.34

PnL

-$44.91

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.61

Value

$59

PnL

+$11.38

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.28

Value

$38.48

PnL

-$14.8

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.9

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$9.6

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$5.2

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.