SCR Altach vs. SV Ried: O/U 2.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 59¢ · $84K held · ended Oct 31

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$84.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 58.5¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$57.6K

Total Shares98,504

Combined PnL+$992.94

Over8 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares62,430

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 47.6¢	$46.4K	$57.1K	+$912.36	48% 148-161 (309)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 52¢	$12.8K	$12.6K	-$151.64	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
RN1CTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$10.6K	$8.3K	$-2.3K	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 54.6¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$460	47% 2510-2807 (5317)
BA BayupatiCTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$343.35	51% 226-220 (446)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$905.86	$895.13	-$10.73	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$451.86	$518.31	+$66.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$454	$376.82	-$77.18
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 55¢	$1.1K	$830	-$270	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 52¢	$943.8	$753.22	-$190.58	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 50¢	$474	$554.58	+$80.58	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
sapupuCTR	Overavg 51¢	$550	$447.55	-$102.45	59% 71-50 (121)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 51.9¢	$182.15	$145.67	-$36.48	58% 28707-21186 (49893)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$46,404.13

Value

$57.1K

PnL

+$912.36

Record

48%

148-161 (309)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$12,776.38

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$151.64

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$10,550.96

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,912.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$460

Record

47%

2510-2807 (5317)

BayupatiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,700.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$343.35

Record

51%

226-220 (446)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$905.86

Value

$895.13

PnL

-$10.73

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Both legs:

Under$451.8651¢+$66.45

Over$45450¢-$77.18

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$1,100

Value

$830

PnL

-$270

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$943.8

Value

$753.22

PnL

-$190.58

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$474

Value

$554.58

PnL

+$80.58

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

sapupuCTR

Over

Invested

$550

Value

$447.55

PnL

-$102.45

Record

59%

71-50 (121)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$182.15

Value

$145.67

PnL

-$36.48

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.