Will SCR Altach win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 60¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 31

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$40.97

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 59.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares22,432

Combined PnL+$584.82

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,842

Combined PnL-$543.85

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 51¢	$6.4K	$6.9K	+$500.51	48% 148-161 (309)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Noavg 53¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$54.63	55% 1743-1435 (3178)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$15.58	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$166.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$182.1
us391	Noavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$124.71	51% 1683-1647 (3330)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$139.93	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 48.7¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$175.88	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$184.76
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$331.38	$340.26	+$8.88
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$60.49	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.9¢	$922.43	$796.38	-$126.04
└ No leg	Noavg 53.3¢	$561.31	$626.86	+$65.55
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$39.38	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.8¢	$898.4	$1.0K	+$113.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$429.07	$354.64	-$74.43
ReformedxCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$135	52% 826-774 (1600)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 46.1¢	$963.76	$846.15	-$117.61	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$451.29	$391.43	-$59.87	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$1.2K	$324	-$84.1	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 54.4¢	$245.91	$259.98	+$14.06	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$172.5	$165.16	-$7.34	59% 2556-1783 (4339)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.16	$2.33	+$0.16	53% 4646-4187 (8833)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$6,381.55

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$500.51

Record

48%

148-161 (309)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Invested

$2,846

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$54.63

Record

55%

1743-1435 (3178)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$2,748.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$15.58

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Both legs:

No$1,558.6952.9¢+$166.52

Yes$1,189.7249¢-$182.1

us391

Invested

$2,161.64

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$124.71

Record

51%

1683-1647 (3330)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,238.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$139.93

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,787.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$175.88

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Both legs:

Yes$1,456.0448.7¢-$184.76

No$331.3856¢+$8.88

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,483.73

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$60.49

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Yes$922.4346.9¢-$126.04

No$561.3153.3¢+$65.55

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$1,327.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$39.38

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

Both legs:

No$898.452.8¢+$113.81

Yes$429.0749¢-$74.43

ReformedxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$135

Record

52%

826-774 (1600)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$963.76

Value

$846.15

PnL

-$117.61

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$451.29

Value

$391.43

PnL

-$59.87

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,229.5

Value

$324

PnL

-$84.1

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$245.91

Value

$259.98

PnL

+$14.06

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Saber-greedCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.5

Value

$165.16

PnL

-$7.34

Record

59%

2556-1783 (4339)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.