Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Perth Glory FC, while the market favors Newcastle United Jets FC (77%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Perth Glory FC (100%) · Perth Glory FC at 23¢ · $239 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Perth Glory FC
5
Perth Glory FC 100%
$238.72
$142.84
Research grade
AvoidPerth Glory FC at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Newcastle United Jets FC 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+60 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Perth Glory FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Perth Glory FCavg 9¢ | $67.25 | $170.36 | +$103.11 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Perth Glory FCavg 6.1¢ | $43.04 | $62.64 | +$39.6 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Perth Glory FCavg 9.4¢ | $1.41 | $3.42 | +$2.01 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Perth Glory FCavg 23.7¢ | $2.37 | $2.28 | -$0.09 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Perth Glory FCavg 9¢ | $20 | $0.01 | -$1.79 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
Invested
$67.25
Value
$170.36
PnL
+$103.11
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$43.04
Value
$62.64
PnL
+$39.6
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$3.42
PnL
+$2.01
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$20
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.79
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.